USDPLN Bullish Run Halts as Poland Holds Interest Rate

FxNews—In November, the National Bank of Poland kept its main interest rate steady at 5.75% for the twelfth time, matching what analysts had predicted. The Lombard rate remained at 6.25%, and the deposit rate stayed at 5.25%.

Early figures show that inflation rose to 5% in October 2024, slightly up from 4.9% in September. This marks the highest inflation rate in ten months, indicating that price pressures are growing. Furthermore, consumer prices increased by 0.3% between September and October, the largest monthly jump in three months.

USDPLN Forecast – 6-November-2024

The American currency trades bullish against the Polish Zloty, which is above the 100-period simple moving average. Interestingly, the uptrend eased after the price neared the upper line of the bullish flag at 4.087. As of this writing, the USD/PLN currency pair trades at about 4.069, stabilizing above the 4.039 immediate support.

As for the technical indicators, the Stochastic Oscillator stepped into overbought territory, signaling that the U.S. dollar is overpriced, at least in the short term. Additionally, the RSI 14 nears 70, supporting the Stochastic’s overbought signal.

USDPLN Expected to Hold Near Support Before Next Bullish Run

From a technical standpoint, the USD/PLN pair is overbought; hence, going long is not advisable at the current price. Due to the overbought signals given by the momentum indicators, the pair is likely to consolidate near the lower support levels, starting with 4.039. This level offers a decent bid to join the bull market.

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In this scenario, the next bullish target could be 4.10, followed by 4.12. Please note the bullish outlook should be invalidated if USD/PLN falls below the 4.04 immediate support or the 50-period simple moving average.

• Support: 4.04 / 3.95
• Resistance: 4.1 / 4.12