FxNews—On Monday, the price of WTI crude oil rose by 3%, reaching $71.50 per barrel. This increase occurred after OPEC+, a group of major oil-producing countries, decided to delay their planned boost in oil production by one month. They will continue their production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until December. Originally, they intended to increase output by 180,000 barrels per day, but they postponed this due to falling prices and weak demand.
Moreover, there are concerns that Iran might retaliate against Israel in the coming days, adding more uncertainty to the oil market.
Close U.S. Election Race and Rate Cut in Focus This Week
In addition, all eyes are on Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election. Polls indicate a close race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump. Furthermore, economists predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday.
Meanwhile, China’s National People’s Congress is meeting this week. They plan to discuss new stimulus measures to support the slowing economy, especially focusing on reducing local government debt.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4-November-2024
The Oil price bounced off the Fair Value Gap support area at approximately $69.3, in conjunction with the 50-period simple moving average. As of this writing, crude oil trades are bullish, approaching the October 24 high at $72.25.
Today, the Oil market was opened by a gap, which resulted in the Stochastic Oscillator stepping into overbought territory. Also, the price is stabilizing above the 100-period SMA, and the Awesome Oscillator histogram is green and above Zero.
This development in the technical indicators suggests the primary trend is bullish, but the uptrend might resume after a minor consolidation.
Crude Oil Forecast – 4-November-2024
The pivot point that divides the Oil bull market from the bear market is $69.7. As long as the price is above the pivot, the outlook for the trend will remain bullish. Furthermore, the immediate resistance rests at $72.25 (October 24 High).
From a technical perspective, the uptrend will likely resume if bulls drag the Oil price above $72.25. In this scenario, the next bullish target could be $73.4, the October 14 low. Please note that the bullish outlook should be invalidated if the price falls below $69.70.
Crude Oil Support and Resistance Levels – 4-November-2024
Traders and investors should closely monitor the key levels below to make informed decisions and adjust their strategies accordingly as market conditions shift.
- Support: 69.7 / 68.3
- Resistance: 72.35 / 73.4