FxNews—The Australian dollar dropped below $0.672, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level this Monday, halting its recent two-day rise. This decline was influenced by the strengthening U.S. dollar, which gained support from robust U.S. economic data and increased the likelihood of Donald Trump winning another term as president.
Deputy Governor Hauser: RBA to Reassess Policy
Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, acknowledged the unexpectedly strong job growth and mentioned that the central bank is prepared to adjust its policies based on new economic data.
Last week’s reports revealed that Australia saw 64,100 new jobs in September, significantly surpassing the anticipated 25,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%.
Investors are now focusing on the upcoming PMI reports, which will provide more insights into the economic trends.
Furthermore, the Australian dollar also received some support due to positive changes in China’s economic outlook. This improvement comes after Beijing introduced several monetary stimulus actions to boost the economy.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 21-October-2024
The Australian dollar trades in a robust bear market against the Greenback. As of this writing, the AUD/USD price flipped below the median line of the Bollinger Bands, trading at approximately $0.668. Interestingly, the pair ignores the MACD’s divergence signal by resuming its bearish trajectory.
Furthermore, the Stochastic Oscillator and RSI 14 decline, depicting 69 and 40 in the description, respectively. In addition to the momentum’s bearish signal, the Boom and Crash Gold Minder Trend indicator‘s histogram turned red, backing the bear market.
Overall, the technical indicators suggest the primary trend is bearish and will likely resume.
AUDUSD Forecast – 21-October-2024
The immediate resistance is at the October 10 Low, the $0.672 mark. The trend outlook remains bearish as long as the price is below this mark. Likewise, the immediate support rests at $0.665 (October 16 Low).
From a technical perspective, the current bears’ goal is to revisit the $0.665 mark. If selling pressure exceeds $0.665, a new bearish wave will likely begin. In this scenario, the next bearish target could be the September 11 low at $0.662.
Please note that the bearish outlook should be invalidated if the AUD/USD price exceeds $0.672.
AUDUSD Bullish Scenario
If the bulls pull AUD/USD above the immediate resistance of $0.672, the uptick momentum from $0.665 could extend to the 100-period simple moving average at $0.676, backed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
AUDUSD Support and Resistance Levels – 21-October-2024
Traders and investors should closely monitor the key levels below to make informed decisions and adjust their strategies accordingly as market conditions shift.
- Support: $0.665 / $0.662
- Resistance: $0.672 / $0.676
J.J Edwards is a finance expert with 15+ years in forex, hedge funds, trading systems, and market analysis.
