FxNews—On Monday, the Australian dollar remained steady above $0.645. This stability was due to expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would maintain a hawkish stance on monetary policy.
Michele Bullock Confirms No Change in RBA Rates
Last week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock mentioned that interest rates are sufficiently high. She stated that these rates will stay the same until the central bank feels confident about the inflation outlook.
Investors eagerly await the release of the latest RBA meeting minutes scheduled for this week. They hope to gain more insight into the central bank’s future policy decisions.
Aussie Dollar Struggles as US Economy Gains
Markets are focusing on upcoming November manufacturing and services reports, which will help assess the broader economic outlook.
Despite this stabilization, the Australian dollar is still near its lowest level in over three months. This is because the US dollar has grown stronger. The strength of the US dollar comes from expectations that the Federal Reserve will make fewer interest rate cuts and from optimism about the US economy’s performance.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 18-November-2024
The Australian dollar is in a bear market against the Greenback. As of this writing, the currency pair stabilizes below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, the RSI 14 signals oversold, meaning the American dollar is overpriced in the short term.
The immediate resistance is at $0.647 (78.6% Fibonacci). Due to the RSI’s oversold signals, the AUD/USD pair can potentially exceed the immediate resistance. If this scenario unfolds, the prices can rise toward the $0.653 resistance. Please note that the market outlook remains bearish if the AUD/USD conversion rate is below the 0.653 resistance, backed by the 50-period simple moving average.
The Bearish Outlook
On the other hand, a new bearish wave will likely begin if prices remain below the immediate resistance ($0.647). In this scenario, the sellers’ path to the August 2024 low at $0.635 could be paved.
- Support: 0.641 / 0.635
- Resistance: 0.647 / 0.653