FxNews—On Thursday, Chinese stocks saw significant gains. The Shanghai Composite rose by 2.57% to 3,471, and the Shenzhen Component increased by 2.44% to 11,236, reaching their highest levels in almost a month. This boost was driven by expectations that a second Donald Trump presidency could lead to tariffs on Chinese goods, which might push China to introduce stronger economic stimulus measures.
Investors are also closely watching as the National People’s Congress standing committee considers raising local government debt to fund additional spending.
China Trade Surplus Surges in October with Strong Exports
Furthermore, China’s trade surplus grew more than expected in October. Exports surged, while imports dropped. High-growing sectors such as technology, securities, and consumer stocks led the rally. Companies like China Greatwall (+10%), Citic Securities (+10%), and Kweichow Moutai (+5%) saw notable gains.
USDCNH Technical Analysis – 7-November-2024
The USD/CNH began a strong bearish wave from 7.214 in today’s trading session, a downtrend warned by the Stochastic’s overbought signal. As of this writing, the bears are testing the bullish Fair Value Gap area at approximately 7.150, neighboring the %50 Fibonacci retracement level.
The Awesome Oscillator histogram is red and declining toward the zero line, meaning the bear market strengthens. Additionally, the Stochastic Oscillator depicts 69 in the description, indicating the downtrend should resume, backed by the RSI 14 nearing 50 from above.
Overall, the technical indicators suggest the bearish wave has the potential to extend further despite the USD/CNH price being above the 50- and 100-period simple moving averages.
USDNCH Forecast – 7-November-2024
The %50 Fibonacci retracement level at 7.150 is the immediate support that could halt the currency pair’s downtrend. From a technical standpoint, if sellers close and stabilize USD/SGD below the immediate support, the next bearish target could be the 7.135 mark (61.8 Fibonacci), backed by the 100-period SMA.
Please note: The bearish outlook should be invalidated if USD/CNH exceeds the 38.2% Fibonacci at 7.165 active resistance.
USDCNH Bullish Scenario
If buyers pull the USD/CNH price above 7.165, a new uptrend will likely be triggered. If this scenario occurs, the bearish Fair Value Gap at 7.18 could be tested as resistance.
- Support: 7.150 / 7.135 / 7.11
- Resistance: 7.165 / 7.186 / 7.214