Crude Oil Technical Analysis / Commodity Trading Analysis

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 30-September-2024

FxNews—WTI Crude Oil bounced from $67.7 as expected and discussed in the previous oil technical analysis (Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 17-September-2024).

As of writing, the black gold has tested the $70 resistance, which is near the 100-period simple moving average. As a result, the oil price is pulling back, currently trading at approximately $69.2, forming a long-wick candlestick pattern on the 4-hour chart.

The 4-hour chart below demonstrates the price, support, resistance levels, and technical indicators used in today’s analysis.

The Stochastic oscillator shows bullish momentum by returning above the 20 line. Concurrently, the relative strength index (RSI) indicator approaches the median line, indicating 43 in the description. This development in the RSI 14 suggests the bear market is weakening.

The Awesome oscillator bars are below the signal line, but the colors are green, and the value is rising. This indicates the buyers’ effort to increase the oil price.

Overall, the technical indicators suggest the primary trend is bearish, but the consolidation phase might resume toward upper resistance levels.

Crude Oil Forecast – 30-September-2024

The critical resistance rests at $70, which aligns with the September 23 low and the 100-period simple moving average. The primary trend remains bearish as the price of oil stays below the 50- and 100-period moving averages.

From a technical perspective, the downtrend will likely resume if the bears maintain the Crude Oil price below the $70 critical resistance. If this scenario unfolds, sellers could potentially target the September 27 low at $67.7.

Furthermore, if the selling pressure drives the price below $67.7, the path to the September 10 low at $65.5 will likely be paved.

Please note, the 100-period SMA serves as resistance to the bear market. Therefore, the downtrend should be invalidated if the oil price exceeds the 100-SMA or the $70 resistance.

Also read: USD/CAD Technical Analysis – 30-September-2024

Crude Oil Bullish Scenario – 30-September-2024

If the bulls (buyers) close the oil price above the $70 threshold and manage to stabilize it, the upward momentum from $67.7 could potentially lead to the next resistance area, between $72.1 and $73.3 (the September 24 high).

Crude Oil Support and Resistance Levels – 30-September-2024

Traders and investors should closely monitor the key levels below to make informed decisions and adjust their strategies accordingly as market conditions shift.

Support: $70.0 / $67.7 / $65.5
Resistance: $72.1 / $73.3 / $74.8