EURAUD Forecast – Australian Retail Sales Surge


In today’s comprehensive EURAUD forecast, we will first examine the current economic conditions in Australia. Then, we will meticulously delve into the details of the EURAUD pair’s technical analysis.

Australian Retail Sales Surge

Reuters – Australian retail figures for September 2023 have witnessed a significant uptick, posting a 0.9% month-on-month increase—a marked improvement over the 0.3% rise seen in August, according to the latest initial estimates. This marks the fastest growth in retail activity since January, with the sector experiencing its third consecutive month of expansion.

Department stores saw the most notable increase, primarily attributed to an early onset of warmer spring weather, registering a 1.7% rise in sales compared to 0.6% in the previous month. Household goods also experienced a resurgence, with a 1.5% increase, likely spurred by the launch of the latest iPhone model and a consumer rebate initiative in Queensland.

The food sector also demonstrated robust performance with a solid 1.0% increase. Meanwhile, other retail categories followed suit, with a 1.3% rise in sales, indicating a broad-based uptick across the retail landscape. Conversely, the clothing segment slowed, with sales growth tempering to 0.3% from a previous high of 1.4%. The hospitality sector, encompassing cafes and restaurants, showed stagnation after experiencing growth in the earlier months.

Retail sales growth was uniform across Australian states and territories, with New South Wales leading with a 1.3% increase, followed closely by Victoria and South Australia. Even regions previously seen as declining, such as Tasmania and the Northern Territory, rebounded with positive sales figures.

EURAUD Forecast – Australian Retail Sales Surge

In our latest EURAUD forecast, we’ve observed that the EURAUD pair is trading within a daily bullish channel. Currently, it’s testing the monthly pivot point at 1.6555. With the bulls maintaining their position above this pivot and within the bullish channel, we anticipate a potential rise in the EURAUD value.

EURAUD Forecast - Australian Retail Sales Surge

EURAUD Forecast – Australian Retail Sales Surge – Daily Chart

Our analysis suggests that the EURAUD pair is likely to ascend to the middle line of the bullish channel, which is around the R2 support level at 1.712. This upward movement is contingent on the continued strength of the bulls in holding their ground above the pivot point.

However, it’s crucial to note that this bullish scenario would be invalidated if the bears manage to close below the pivot point. While a close below the pivot point doesn’t necessarily indicate a trend reversal, it does signal a potential shift in market dynamics.

The support level for this currency pair is 1.621. A breach of this level would confirm a trend reversal. Therefore, traders should closely monitor these key levels when formulating their strategies.

  • 30 October 2023