In today’s comprehensive EURAUD forecast, we will first scrutinize the current economic conditions in Australia. Following that, we will meticulously delve into the details of the technical analysis pertaining to the EURAUD pair.
Australian Retail Sales Surge
Reuters – Australian retail figures for September 2023 have witnessed a significant uptick, posting a 0.9% month-on-month increase—a marked improvement over the 0.3% rise seen in August, according to the latest initial estimates. This marks the fastest growth in retail activity since January, with the sector experiencing its third consecutive month of expansion. Department stores saw the most notable increase, largely attributed to an early onset of warmer spring weather, registering a 1.7% rise in sales compared to 0.6% in the previous month. Household goods also experienced a resurgence, with a 1.5% increase, likely spurred by the launch of the latest iPhone model and a consumer rebate initiative in Queensland.
The food sector also demonstrated robust performance with a solid 1.0% increase. Meanwhile, other retail categories followed suit, with a 1.3% rise in sales, indicating a broad-based uptick across the retail landscape. Conversely, the clothing segment saw a slowdown, with sales growth tempering to 0.3% from a previous high of 1.4%. The hospitality sector, encompassing cafes and restaurants, showed stagnation after experiencing growth in the earlier months.
The retail sales growth was uniform across Australian states and territories, with New South Wales leading at a 1.3% increase, followed closely by Victoria and South Australia. Even regions that had previously seen declines, such as Tasmania and the Northern Territory, rebounded with positive sales figures.
In our latest EURAUD forecast, we’ve observed that the EURAUD pair is trading within a daily bullish channel. Currently, it’s testing the monthly pivot point at 1.6555. With the bulls maintaining their position above this pivot and within the bullish channel, we anticipate a potential rise in the EURAUD value.
Our analysis suggests that the EURAUD pair is likely to ascend to the middle line of the bullish channel, which is around the R2 support level at 1.712. This upward movement is contingent on the continued strength of the bulls in holding their ground above the pivot point.
However, it’s crucial to note that this bullish scenario would be invalidated if the bears manage to close below the pivot point. While a close below the pivot point doesn’t necessarily indicate a trend reversal, it does signal a potential shift in market dynamics.
The support level for this currency pair stands at 1.621. A breach of this level would be required to confirm a trend reversal. Therefore, traders should keep a close eye on these key levels when formulating their trading strategies.
J.J Edwards is a finance expert with 15+ years in forex, hedge funds, trading systems, and market analysis.