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EURHUF Forecast – December-4-2023

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In today’s comprehensive EURHUF forecast, we will first scrutinize the current economic conditions in Hungary. Following that, we will meticulously delve into the details of the technical analysis pertaining to the Euro to the Hungarian Forint exchange rate.

Hungary’s Trade Balance Improves in September

Bloomberg – In September 2023, Hungary achieved a trade surplus of EUR 1,300 million, matching the initial estimates and showing a significant improvement from the EUR 738 million trade gap in the same month of the previous year. This was the largest trade surplus since June and the eighth consecutive month of positive trade balance, as the country’s exports and imports both decreased compared to the year before. Exports dropped by 4.3% to EUR 12,8 million, while imports plunged by 19% to EUR 11,5 million. The EU markets remained the main destination and source of goods for Hungary, accounting for 76% of exports and 69% of imports. In the first nine months of the year, Hungary’s trade surplus amounted to EUR 6.9 million.

EURHUF Forecast: Technical Analysis

FxNews – The EURHUF pair has been trading within a slightly bullish channel since November. The pair is currently crossing above the median line of the channel, indicating a potential uptrend. The RSI indicator is also shifting above the 50 level, which is a signal for bullish momentum.

EURHUF Forecast - December-4-2023

EURHUF Forecast – 4H Chart

We expect the EURHUF to rise further and aim for the late November high around the 382 mark. This level has acted as a strong resistance in the past and could pose a challenge for the bulls. However, if the pair manages to break above this level, it could open the door for further gains towards the 385 and 390 levels.

On the other hand, if the pair fails to sustain the upward movement and falls below the median line of the channel, it could face some downward pressure. The first support level to watch is the 377 mark, which coincides with the lower boundary of the channel. A break below this level could signal a reversal of the bullish trend and trigger a sell-off towards the 373 and 370 levels.

The EURHUF pair is influenced by various factors, such as the economic and political developments in the Eurozone and Hungary, the monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, and the market sentiment and risk appetite. Therefore, traders should keep an eye on the news and events that could affect the pair’s direction and volatility.

  • 4 December 2023
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