In today’s comprehensive EURNOK forecast, we will first scrutinize the current economic conditions in Norway. Following that, we will meticulously delve into the details of the technical analysis pertaining to the EURNOK pair.
Norway’s Monetary Policy Update
On November 2nd, 2023, the Norges Bank, Norway’s central bank, decided to maintain its key policy rate at 4.25%, aligning with expectations. However, the bank hinted at a potential interest rate hike in December due to persistently high core inflation. The decision-makers at the bank observed that inflation has decreased more than anticipated and economic activity has not reached the projected levels. However, they also noted that the depreciation of the krone could help sustain inflation.
Governor Ida Wolden Bache stated, “Ahead of the monetary policy meeting in December, the Committee will have gathered more information about the inflation outlook. If the Committee gains more confidence that underlying inflation is decreasing, the policy rate may remain unchanged.”
In September, inflation in Norway dropped to 3.3%. Meanwhile, the krone has weakened to its lowest level against the USD since March 2020. This complex economic landscape continues to shape the bank’s monetary policy decisions.
EURNOK Forecast: A Technical Analysis
The EURNOK currency pair is currently testing the 11.8 resistance level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing the overbought zone. This past Friday, EURNOK formed a long wick candlestick pattern, which could potentially signal a decrease in the uptrend bias or even a trend reversal.
For a more detailed understanding of the pair’s price action, we delve into the 4-hour chart. Here, the RSI shows divergence while the pair continues to trade within the bullish channel. If the bears manage to close below the S1 support level at 11.78, it’s likely that the pair will correct its recent gains by declining to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Conversely, if the bulls can secure a close above the R1 resistance level at 11.91 on the 4-hour chart, we could see the uptrend continue, with the upper line of the bullish channel as the target.
Stay tuned for more updates on the EURNOK forecast.
J.J Edwards is a finance expert with 15+ years in forex, hedge funds, trading systems, and market analysis.