In today’s EURPLN forecast, we will first review the current economic conditions in Poland. Then, we will meticulously delve into the details of the technical analysis for the EUR/PLN pair.
The Downtrend in Poland Inflation
Bloomberg—In a recent economic update, Poland witnessed a notable decrease in its annual inflation rate. As of October 2023, the rate dropped to 6.6%, a decline from the 8.2% recorded in the previous month. This figure slightly exceeded the market predictions of 6.5%. This is Poland’s lowest inflation rate since September 2021, indicating a significant easing in price increases across various sectors.
Breakdown of Decreased Costs
A closer look at the categories reveals that the cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages has decreased to 8% from 10.4% in September. This is a substantial relief for everyday consumers. Similarly, expenses related to housing and utilities decreased to 8.3% from 9.5%, while furnishings and household equipment costs decreased to 7.5% from 8.1%. Other areas also experienced a decrease in inflation.
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco dropped to 10.1% from 10.5%, health-related costs eased to 5.4% from 6.1%, and recreation and culture expenses lowered to 7.5% from 8.6%. Additionally, education costs decreased to 10.5% from 11.1%, spending in restaurants and hotels fell to 11% from 12%, and miscellaneous goods and services decreased to 9.4% from 10%. A significant decline was observed in transport costs, plummeting to -7.9% from -2.8%.
However, not all areas saw a decrease. Clothing and footwear prices slightly rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, and communication costs increased to 9% from 7.6%. On a month-to-month basis, consumer prices experienced a slight uptick of 0.3% in October, following a 0.4% decrease in September.
Economic Impact of Lower Inflation
The reduction in Poland’s inflation rate is generally beneficial for the economy. It alleviates residents’ living costs, allowing for more disposable income and potentially boosting consumer spending. Lower inflation can also lead to more stable economic conditions, attracting foreign investment. However, it’s crucial to monitor sectors where prices are rising, like clothing and communication. These increases could indicate areas of the economy that are under strain and might need attention to prevent disproportionate inflation in the future.
EURPLN Technical Analysis and Forecast
On November 15, the EURPLN experienced a significant change, breaking through the 4.399 resistance level. This decline, indicative of a bearish market trend, continued until it reached the S1 support level at 4.358. Presently, the pair’s price is stabilizing below this previously broken support. Concurrently, the RSI indicator signals an oversold condition, suggesting a potential correction in market dynamics.
This situation presents an intriguing possibility for EUR/PLN. There’s an anticipation that the bulls may initiate a recovery, aiming to drive the price to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The stability at the S1 support lends credibility to this forecast. However, this scenario would no longer hold if the S1 level is breached. Should this occur, the EUR/PLN could face increased downward pressure from sellers, potentially driving it toward the S2 support level at 4.264.
The current market sentiment for EURPLN is predominantly bearish. Experts at FxNews advise traders to monitor the pair’s movements closely. We recommend waiting for the end of the current correction phase, which could be indicated either by the price’s reaction near the 23.6% resistance level or by a breakout at the S1 support. This cautious approach could provide clearer insights into the future direction of the EURPLN.
J.J Edwards is a finance expert with 15+ years in forex, hedge funds, trading systems, and market analysis.
