FxNews—Gold‘s price held steady at $2,660 per ounce on Tuesday, maintaining its value after a slight decrease. This stability is largely due to increasing global political tensions.
China Deploys Coast Guard Near Taiwan
Recent reports have highlighted significant military activities by China around Taiwan, including unprecedented air drills and the first-ever deployment of its coast guard to surround the island.
This development comes amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, further adding to global uncertainties.
Interest Rate Cuts Uncertain Amid Mixed Data
Financial markets are currently looking for more indicators of future U.S. monetary policy. This includes updates on retail sales and upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials.
Although expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have been reduced based on strong job and inflation reports, contrasting signals like rising unemployment claims and decelerating inflation at the producer level complicate predictions.
Recent data suggest that the probability of a small 0.25% cut in the U.S. federal funds rate by November is highly anticipated, with an 87% chance.
Gold Technical Analysis – 15-October-2024
Gold’s uptrend resumed after the bear failed to maintain the price below the 100-period simple moving average at approximately $2,630. Consequently, a new bullish wave began from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the AB wave at $2,604.
As of this writing, yellow metal trades at about $2,660, testing the October 4 high. Meanwhile, the technical indicators suggest the primary trend is bullish and should resume.
- The Awesome Oscillator histogram is above the signal line, and the recent bar turned green, indicating the bull market prevails.
- The primary trend should also be considered bullish because the price is above the 50- and 100-period simple moving averages.
- The Relative Strength Index indicator is above the median line, depicting 60 in the description, signaling the bull market should prevail.
Gold Price Forecast – 15-October-2024
The immediate resistance is at the October 4 high, the $2,670 mark. From a technical perspective, the uptrend resumes if bulls (buyers) close above the $2,670 mark. If this scenario comes into play, the next bullish target could be the September 26 high at $2,685.
Furthermore, if the buying pressure increases and the price exceeds $2,685, the bulls’ path to the physiological level of $2,700 will likely be paved.
- Next read: NATGAS Price Drops Amid Increase in Storage
Gold Bearish Scenario
The critical support level rests at the October 10 low, the $2,604 mark. If bears (sellers) push the price below this support, the decline will likely extend to $2,590 (the September 16 High).
Furthermore, if the XAU/USD value falls below $2,590, the bears can potentially target the September 18 low at $2,550, a scenario that is unlikely due to the current geopolitical tension.
Gold Support and Resistance Levels – 10-October-2024
Traders and investors should closely monitor the key levels below to make informed decisions and adjust their strategies accordingly as market conditions shift.
- Support: $2,625 / $2,604 / $2,590 / $2,550
- Resistance: $2,670 / $2,685 / $2,700
J.J Edwards is a finance expert with 15+ years in forex, hedge funds, trading systems, and market analysis.
