USDMXN Falls as Mexican Car Production Rises 1.1%

In October 2024, Mexico’s car production increased by 1.1% year-over-year, reaching 382,101 vehicles. Although continuous for the seventh month, this growth was the slowest since March. Notably, General Motors’ production rose by 4.8% to 82,924 vehicles. Similarly, Nissan saw a 12% increase, producing 70,382 cars. Ford Motor reported a significant jump, boosting its output by 47.7% to 36,358 vehicles.

On the other hand, Stellantis and Volkswagen experienced declines in their production, dropping 26.1% to 32,196 vehicles and 24.3% to 34,415 vehicles, respectively. From January to October 2024, Mexican car production grew by 5.5% compared to the same period last year, totaling 3.4 million units.

USDMXN Technical Analysis – 6-November-2024

As expected, the USD/MXN currency pair dipped sharply from 20.81 due to the RSI 14’s overbought signal. As of writing, the currency pair trades at approximately 20.10, testing the 100-period simple moving average of the 4-hour chart.

Today’s sharp decline left the market with a Fair Value Gap at approximately 20.41, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. As for the technical indicators, the Awesome Oscillator’s recent bar turned red, strengthening the bear market. Additionally, RSI 14 and Stochastic are declining but not oversold, meaning the downtrend will likely resume.

USDMXN Forecast – 6-November-2024

From a technical perspective, the market outlook remains bullish as long as the price is above the %50 Fibonacci retracement level. That said, if the 19.96 support level holds, USD/MXN has the potential to recover some of its losses. In this scenario, the U.S. dollar price could rise toward 20.22, followed by 20.41, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

• Next read: USDILS Bears Pushes Lower Under Key 3.77 Resistance.

Conversely, the bullish outlook should be invalidated if USD/MXN dips below 19.96, the %50 Fibonacci retracement level. If this scenario unfolds, the next bearish target could be the 61.8% Fibonacci at 19.76.

• Support: 19.96 / 19.76 / 19.64
• Resistance: 20.22 / 20.41 / 20.81