EURHUF Forecast – November-15-2023


In today’s comprehensive EURHUF forecast, we will first scrutinize the current economic conditions in Hungary. Following that, we will meticulously delve into the details of the technical analysis pertaining to the EURHUF pair.

Understanding Hungary’s Q3 GDP Performance

A Deeper Decline Than Anticipated: In the third quarter of 2023, Hungary faced a more significant economic downturn than initially expected. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.4% compared to the same period last year. This decrease is a slight improvement from the 2.4% contraction seen in the preceding quarter but still more severe than the 0.2% drop forecasted by market analysts.

This period marked the third consecutive quarter of GDP decline for Hungary. The primary contributors to this downward trend were notable decreases in sectors like wholesale and retail trade, as well as in scientific, technical, and administrative activities. These sectors are crucial as they often reflect the overall economic health and consumer spending power within a country.

Despite the overall decline, some sectors within Hungary’s economy did show signs of resilience and growth. Notably, the agriculture sector and the fields of human health and social work activities experienced growth during this period. The positive performance in these sectors helped to somewhat mitigate the broader economic downturn.

When looking at the seasonally adjusted quarterly data, there is a glimmer of hope. The GDP saw a rise of 0.9% on a quarterly basis, a significant turnaround from the stagnation observed in the previous quarter. This quarterly growth suggests some underlying strengths in the economy, despite the year-on-year contraction.

Economic Implications

The ongoing GDP decline in Hungary, poses several challenges to the economy. Prolonged downturns can lead to reduced consumer confidence, decreased spending, and potential job losses in affected sectors. However, the growth in agriculture and health sectors provides a cushion, indicating some diversification and resilience in the economy.

From a broader perspective, the economic performance of a country like Hungary has ripple effects in the region and can influence investor confidence and market stability. While the continued GDP decline is concerning, the positive quarterly growth offers a ray of hope for a gradual recovery. The situation requires careful monitoring to gauge whether this positive trend will continue and help offset the yearly declines.

EURHUF Forecast: A Deep Technical Analysis

In the latest EURHUF trading landscape, the currency pair is exhibiting a bearish trend, as clearly seen in the EUR/HUF 4-hour chart. The RSI indicator has dipped below the median line, signaling strong selling pressure. Currently, EURHUF is trapped within a bearish channel, reinforcing the downtrend outlook with a target set on S2.

EURHUF Forecast

EURHUF Forecast – 4H Chart

The flag’s upper line (channel) acts as a resistance point. Should this resistance break, it would invalidate the current bearish scenario, indicating a potential shift in trend direction.

Keep an eye on these key levels for insight into the pair’s next moves.

  • 15 November 2023
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