EURNOK Forecast – November-21-2023


FxNews – In today’s EURNOK forecast, the currency pair experienced a significant and unexpected drop from its November high, even after crossing above the 11.8 resistance. The EURNOK pair is now nearing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (11.6186). This price level has proven to be a strong support in the past, as the price has reacted to it on three occasions. To gain a clearer understanding of the EUR/NOK price action, it’s beneficial to delve into the 4-hour chart.

EURNOK Forecast - November-21-2023

EURNOK Forecast – Daily Chart

On this chart, it’s evident that EURNOK is trading within a bearish flag, with the RSI indicator dipping into the oversold area. This reflects the considerable bearish pressure on the pair. According to the daily chart, the bears’ target might be around the 11.618 area. However, the pair could rebound from the S1 support level (11.655), especially considering it recently formed a long wick bullish candlestick pattern. At this point, it’s too early to determine whether the EURNOK will reverse its trend from this support area. For a trend reversal to occur, the pair must first break out from the bearish flag.

EURNOK Forecast

EURNOK Forecast – 4H Chart

In conclusion, our EURNOK forecast suggests a potential easing in the downward momentum, with a possible correction to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level seen in the 4-hour chart. This key level is located at 11.82.

EURNOK Forecast: Fundamental Analysis

Reuters — In October 2023, Norway experienced a noticeable shrinkage in its trade surplus, falling to NOK 86.9 billion from the NOK 97.7 billion recorded in the same month the previous year. This decrease is primarily attributed to a greater decline in exports compared to imports.

Exports took a significant hit, dropping by NOK 9.0 billion year-on-year to reach NOK 174.3 billion. This downturn was influenced mainly by reduced sales in several key sectors:

  • Mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials saw a 15.0% decrease.
  • Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material declined by 11.4%.
  • Chemicals and related products n.e.s (not elsewhere specified) fell by 10.2%.

On the import side, the decline was less severe, with a 6.8% decrease to NOK 87.4 billion. This reduction in imports was seen across various categories:

  • Mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials dropped by 16.4%.
  • Crude materials, inedible, except fuels decreased by 21.2%.
  • Machinery and transport equipment went down by 12.1%.
  • Chemicals and related products n.e.s decreased by 10.6%.
  • Miscellaneous manufactured articles saw a 7.2% reduction.

Yearly Trade Performance: A Broader Perspective

When looking at the first ten months of 2023, the overall picture becomes more apparent. Norway’s trade surplus plunged by a significant 49.4% compared to the previous year, standing at NOK 695.7 billion. This change was due to a 30.2% slump in exports, while imports slightly grew by 1.1%.

Economic Implications

The narrowing of the trade surplus in Norway, especially with a sharp drop in exports, is a concerning sign. Exports are a vital component of a country’s economy, as they bring in revenue and balance trade. The sectors that experienced the most significant declines, such as mineral fuels and manufactured goods, are crucial for Norway’s economic health. A prolonged decrease in these areas could lead to negative repercussions, including reduced national income and potential job losses in affected industries.

However, the slight increase in imports could indicate a stable domestic demand, showing that the economy still has some resilience. It’s essential to monitor these trends closely to understand the long-term impacts on Norway’s economy. A balanced approach to boosting exports while maintaining healthy import levels will be crucial for sustained economic stability and growth.

  • 21 November 2023
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