In today’s comprehensive EURNZD forecast, we will first scrutinize the current economic conditions in New Zealand. Following that, we will meticulously delve into the details of the technical analysis pertaining to the EURNZD pair.
Steady Ascent for the Kiwi Dollar
As the trading week wraps up, the New Zealand dollar finds itself at approximately $0.5905, marking a two-week peak. This week could be the currency’s first gain after four consecutive weeks of declines. The decline in the US dollar has been a contributing factor, with market participants reassessing the possibility that the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate hikes. Eyes are on the release of the US nonfarm payroll data later today, which could influence currency movements further.
Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held the cash rate steady at 5.5% during its early October session, marking the third unchanged rate in a row. However, the RBNZ expressed concerns about persistent high inflation despite a significant 525 basis point cumulative increase in rates since October 2021. With the year’s final meeting approaching, investors are optimistic that the RBNZ will adhere to its strategy to curb the annual inflation rate, which recently stood at 5.6%, back to its target range of 1 to 3%.
Looking over to Australia, anticipation is building that the central bank will opt for a quarter-point rise in borrowing costs in the coming week and maintain a strong stance against inflation.
EURNZD Forecast: Technical Analysis
The EURNZD currency pair is currently undergoing a test at the 1.798 pivot point, having already slipped below the Kernel line on the daily chart. The crossing of the middle line by the RSI indicates a growing bearish sentiment in the EURNZD forecast.
For a more granular perspective, we turn to the 4-hour chart. Here, the market direction is decidedly bearish, with EURNZD trading beneath the Ichimoku cloud. The pair is presently testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Should it dip below this level, we could see the decline extend to the 50% and then the 61% Fibonacci retracement levels.
The Ichimoku cloud presents a resistance. To negate the bearish outlook, EURNZD bulls would need to secure a close above the cloud.
J.J Edwards is a finance expert with 15+ years in forex, hedge funds, trading systems, and market analysis.