GBPHKD Forecast: Hungary’s Retail Sales Dip
In today’s comprehensive GBPHKD forecast, we will first scrutinize the current economic conditions in Hungary. Following that, we will meticulously delve into the details of the technical analysis pertaining to the GBPHKD pair.
A Downward Trend in Hungary’s Retail Sales
In September 2023, Hungary’s retail sales experienced a downturn, falling by 7.3% compared to the same month in the previous year. This followed a 7.1% decrease in August, marking the tenth consecutive month of declining retail activity.
A Closer Look at the Sales Components
The decline was more pronounced in certain sectors. Sales of automotive fuel saw a further decrease, dropping by 19.9% compared to an 18.1% decrease in August. Non-food products also saw a significant decrease in sales, falling by 7.5% compared to a 5.2% decrease in the previous month.
On the other hand, the sales of food, beverages & tobacco fell at a slower rate of 2.3%, improving from a 4% decrease in August.
Monthly Sales and Year-to-Date Comparison
On a month-over-month basis, retail sales saw a slight increase of 0.1% in September, bouncing back from a 0.5% decrease in August. However, when considering the January-September period as a whole, retail trade was down by 9.3% compared to the same period in the previous year.
The GBPHKD currency pair is currently in a phase of testing. It’s challenging the upper line of the previously broken bearish channel, as seen on the daily chart. The market sentiment leans towards the bullish side, with the pair comfortably hovering above the pivot point. Consequently, we anticipate an upward trajectory for the GBPHKD price, potentially targeting the 9.8 resistance level.
Now, let’s broaden our perspective and zoom in to the 4-hour chart to identify potential triggers for this bullish scenario. If the pair manages to close above the 9.61 weekly pivot and the kernel line, this could serve as a strong signal that the uptrend is set to continue. In such a case, the next target would likely be the R1 level, situated around the 9.773 resistance.
Supporting this bullish scenario is the 9.536 level. However, it’s crucial to note that if this level is breached, it would invalidate the current uptrend scenario. Therefore, keeping a close eye on these key levels is essential for understanding the potential future movements of the GBPHKD pair.
J.J Edwards is a finance expert with 15+ years in forex, hedge funds, trading systems, and market analysis.