FxNews—The NZD/USD uptrend momentum eased near the 50-period simple moving average, a resistance level backed by the upper line of the bearish flag. As of writing, the New Zealand dollar trades at about $0.609 against the American currency, trying to create a bearish engulfing pattern in the 4-hour time frame.
The 4-hour chart below demonstrates the current NZD/USD price, the key Fibonacci levels, and the technical indicators used in today’s analysis.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1-July-2024
The primary trend is bearish because the NZD/USD price is below the 50- and 100-period simple moving averages. Interestingly, the technical indicators suggest the market lacks momentum and might be overbought.
- The awesome oscillator bars are small, approaching the signal line from below, with green bars depicting -0.003 in the value. This development in the AO bars suggests the market lacks a trend but is mildly bullish.
- The Relative strength index indicator has clung to the median line since Friday’s trading session, signifying that the NZD/USD trend is sideways.
- The stochastic %K line value is rising, recording 74 in the description, meaning the New Zealand currency could become overbought soon if it exceeds 80.
NZDUSD Price Forecast – 1-July-2024
The primary trend is bearish because the price is below the 50- and 100-period SMAs. The immediate resistance is the 23.6% Fibonacci at $0.609.
Hence, from a technical perspective, for the primary trend (bearish) to resume, bears must close the 4-hour chart candle below $0.609 to form a bearish engulfing pattern. If this scenario unfolds, the downtrend will likely resume and initially target $0.608. Furthermore, if the selling pressure drives the price below $0.608, the next bearish target could be the June 28 low at $0.605.
Notably, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.612 is the key resistance to the downtrend scenario. Should this level be breached, the bearish strategy should be invalidated accordingly.
NZD/USD Bullish Scenario
The key resistance that prevents the price from rising further is at $0.612, a level backed by the 100-period simple moving average. Should the bulls (buyers) close above $0.612 in the 4-hour chart, the rise from $0.605 could test the 50% Fibonacci at $0.613.
If this scenario occurs, the key resistance level will be the 23.6% Fibonacci, at $0.609.
NZD/USD Key Support and Resistance Levels – 1-July-2024
Traders and investors should closely monitor the key levels below to make informed decisions and adjust their strategies accordingly as market conditions shift.
- Support: $0.609 / $0.608 / $0.605
- Resistance: $0.612 / $0.613
Disclaimer: This technical analysis is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign exchange trading carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions.
J.J Edwards is a finance expert with 15+ years in forex, hedge funds, trading systems, and market analysis.
