USDRON Forecast – December-12-2023


FxNews – The USDRON currency pair recently tested the upper boundary of its bearish flag pattern. Currently, the pair is stabilizing, maintaining its price above the 38.2% support level on the daily chart. Technical indicators are suggesting that the bullish trend, which started on November 29 from 4.15, is likely to continue. The next major challenge for the bulls is overcoming the 50% Fibonacci resistance level. Should the USDRON price successfully breach this level, we could see an extension of the bullish momentum towards the 61.8% and eventually, the 78.6% levels.

Conversely, if the pair fails to surpass the 50% resistance level, a decline towards the 23.6% support level might occur. This potential drop is further underscored by the median line of the bearish flag pattern.

USDRON Forecast - December-12-2023

USDRON Forecast – Daily Chart

Stocks in Romania Reach New Peaks

Bloomberg – The Bucharest Stock Exchange Trading Index (BET), a crucial indicator of Romania’s stock market performance, recently achieved a milestone by reaching an all-time high of 15,128. This represents a modest yet significant increase of 32.46 points (0.22%) from the previous trading session. Over the last four weeks, BET has shown a steady upward trajectory, gaining 3.39%. More impressively, when looking back over the past year, the index has surged by 24.81%.

This rise in the BET index is a positive sign for investors. It indicates a robust stock market, reflecting growing investor confidence and economic stability in Romania. A booming stock market often leads to increased foreign investment and can be a driver for economic growth.

Romania’s Trade Deficit Improvement

October 2023 marked a significant improvement in Romania’s trade deficit, which narrowed to EUR 2.80 billion from EUR 3.42 billion in the same month the previous year. This change is attributed to a combination of factors. Notably, Romanian exports experienced a 5.6% increase, reaching EUR 8.41 billion. This growth was fueled by heightened sales to both European Union (EU) countries (up by 5.7%) and non-EU countries (rising by 5.2%). On the other hand, imports decreased by 1.5% to EUR 11.2 billion, influenced by reduced purchases from both EU (-0.3%) and non-EU countries (-4.8%).

USDRON Economic Implications

The narrowing trade deficit is beneficial for Romania’s economy. It indicates a stronger export sector and could lead to a better balance of trade. Increasing exports can stimulate domestic industries and create jobs, while a decrease in imports suggests more reliance on local products, boosting the domestic economy.

  • 12 December 2023
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