In today’s trading session, the USDZAR currency pair is trading below the monthly pivot, the 18.7 mark. The current USD/ZAR price is 18.6 at the time of writing. While the trend is bearish, bears test the trendline in red, shown in the daily Chart below. Interestingly, the relative strength index (RSI) indicator flipped below the 50 level, which can be interpreted as the downtrend will likely continue.
USDZAR Price Forecast: Insights from the 4-Hour Chart
Zooming into the 4-hour time frame allows us to analyze the USDZAR chart from a closer perspective. The awesome oscillator divergence was further backed up by the S1 support, the 18.5 mark. As a result, the pair experienced an uptick in momentum and tested the upper band of the bearish flag. However, bulls failed to maintain position, and therefore, the Chart formed a long wick candlestick pattern. This event can be interpreted as the bears being more active than the bulls in the market.
From a technical standpoint, the downtrend remains valid as long as the USDZAR price trades below the 18.8 pivot. The S1 support, the 18.5, seems fragile and likely to be crossed by the USD sellers. If this scenario comes into play, the next target for the bearish trend would be S2, the 18.3 mark.
Conversely, the weekly pivot is what holds between the bearish trend and the bullish trend. The bearish trend should be considered invalid if the USDZAR price crosses the pivot and stabilizes itself above the 18.8 level. In this case, the USD price would rise to 19.2 resistance.
J.J Edwards is a finance expert with 15+ years in forex, hedge funds, trading systems, and market analysis.