This Crude oil market analysis delves into black gold’s fundamental and technical aspects.
Oil Market Analysis – Middle East Tension Affects Prices
Reuters—On Friday, oil prices significantly increased due to concerns that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas might lead to instability in the Middle East, thereby affecting the worldwide oil supply. Iran’s suggestion of a potential escalation in the conflict further complicated the situation.
The cost of West Texas Intermediate exceeded $85 per barrel on Friday, marking an approximate three percent increase over the week. The price had initially spiked on Monday following an attack by Hamas on Israel but decreased subsequently as it was anticipated that the conflict would be controlled.
However, Iran’s foreign minister issued a warning that if the Gaza blockade persisted, militants supported by Iran might intensify Israel’s war against Hamas.
Oil Market Volatility Amid Iran Involvement
The oil market experienced considerable fluctuations this week. Market participants are attempting to account for the possibility of Iran, a known supporter of Hamas with arms and funds, entering the war and the potential risk this could pose to broader oil flows. This uncertainty has led to significant variations in oil prices.
Analyst Insights
Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd., stated that the current trading environment is suited for the daring and adventurous. He also highlighted that the deteriorating situation in Israel/Gaza reminds us of the persistent risk associated with the Middle East.
On Thursday, U.S. crude oil stocks saw their largest increase since February, causing a price decline. However, this was offset by another reduction in supply at Cushing, Oklahoma—the delivery point for WTI. The International Energy Agency noted that oil prices have recently dropped from near US$100 per barrel, suggesting that prices had reached a point where they began to impact demand negatively. Nevertheless, they still forecast record global oil consumption for this year.
Oil Market Analysis: A Technical View
FxNews—Crude oil prices rebounded after briefly hovering within the Ichimoku cloud. This market activity was anticipated due to recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a result, technical indicators hinted at a potential trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) displayed a divergence, while the stochastic oscillator remained in oversold territory. Crude oil prices are testing the previously broken support level around $87.
Upon closer inspection of the 4-hour chart for crude oil, we observe a breakout from the bearish channel, marked by a strong bullish candle. As crude oil prices rose, the stochastic oscillator entered the overbought zone. This suggests that crude oil prices may experience a minor pullback to the $85 level before potentially increasing further. The $85 pivot point presents an attractive bid price for bullish investors.
J.J Edwards is a finance expert with 15+ years in forex, hedge funds, trading systems, and market analysis.
