USDCNH Forecast – November-24-2023


FxNews – In today’s USDCNH forecast, we will comprehensively analyze the pair, delving into both its technical and fundamental aspects for a thorough understanding.

USDCNH Forecast: Fundamental View

Bloomberg – The offshore yuan has recently seen a significant appreciation, reaching around 7.15 per dollar. This is the highest it has been since late July. The increase is partly due to the weakening of the US dollar and the actions of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which set a surprisingly strong midpoint rate for the yuan. To put it simply, the midpoint rate is a reference the PBOC sets daily for the yuan’s value compared to the dollar.

On Friday, the PBOC raised this reference rate to 7.1151 per dollar. This adjustment marks the strongest setting for the yuan in over five and a half months. Additionally, there’s been a noticeable trend of corporations converting their dollar earnings back into yuan, providing further support to the Chinese currency.

Turning to the topic of monetary policy, the PBOC has decided to keep its one and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively. This move was anticipated by market watchers. The bank’s decision comes at a time when the latest economic data from October presents a mixed picture, and authorities are evaluating the effects of recent stimulus measures on the economy.

Looking forward, investors are now focusing on upcoming data regarding Chinese industrial profits and manufacturing activity. This information, expected next week, will offer new insights into the state of China’s economy and potentially impact the yuan’s value.

USDCNH Forecast: Technical View

FxNews – In our today’s USDCNH forecast, we observe that the decline of the USDCNH has eased upon approaching the 7.12 resistance level. The USDCNH price has shown a positive reaction to this supply zone on two occasions: once on July 14 and then again on July 27. This resistance zone has been tested twice, and the RSI indicator provides additional evidence, suggesting that the pair is extremely oversold. This could signal an opportune moment for the bulls to step in, and as a result, we might see some corrections in the USDCNH price.

Looking ahead, the USDCNH pair is likely to surpass the 23.6% level of the Fibonacci retracement and aim for the 38.2% mark, provided the bulls can maintain the price above the 7.12 level.

USDCNH Forecast - November-24-2023

USDCNH Forecast – Daily Chart

However, if the 7.12 level is breached, we anticipate that the decline will gain new momentum, leading to a further dip in the USDCNH price.

  • 24 November 2023
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