USDJPY Technical Analysis – 3-May-2024

FxNews—The American currency has been in a robust uptrend against the Japanese Yen since January 1, 2024. The uptrend accelerated after SMA 50 crossed above SMA 100, a signal called the Golden Cross. As of writing, the pair trades in a mild bullish uptrend at about $157.0.

USDJPY Technical Analysis Daily Chart

The technical indicators in the USD/JPY daily chart give complex signals:

• The awesome oscillator bars are red, above zero, and stable. The value of the bars is not increasing or decreasing. This means the USD/JPY doesn’t show a significant trend in the short term.
• The RSI (14) indicator value is 58, hovering above the median line. This means the trend has bullish tendencies.
• Furthermore, the stochastic oscillator is in the overbought territory, recording 83 in the %K line. This growth in the indicator’s value suggests the American dollar is overpriced against the Yen.

These developments in the technical indicators in the USD/JPY daily chart suggest the trend will likely enter a consolidation phase, and the Japanese Yen could erase some of its losses.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 3-May-2024

The 4-hour chart above depicts the pair’s price action, hovering above SMA 100 and testing SMA 50 in the current trading session.

The technical indicators in the 4-hour chart provide mixed signals.

• The awesome oscillator bars are green, above zero, but small, recording 0.17 in value. This means the market lacks significant momentum but has a mildly bullish outlook.
• The relative strength index (RSI 14) indicator moves sideways alongside the median line, and a value of 48 indicates a low-momentum market.
• The stochastic oscillator %K value is 64 and increasing. This means the USD/JPY price has room to rise further.

These developments in the technical indicators in the 4-hour chart suggest the trend is slowing down but with mild bullish tendencies.

USD/JPY Forecast – 3-June-2024

Based on the daily and 4-hour technical analysis, we notice the USD/JPY trend is bullish but overpriced. The immediate resistance is at $157, which is May’s peak. For the bullish trend to resume, the USD/JPY price must exceed the $157.7 barrier. If this scenario comes into play, the bulls’ next target could be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $158.4.

The bullish outlook should be invalidated if the USD/JPY price dips below the ascending trend line (green) at $156.0, a key resistance level backed by %50 Fibonacci.

Bearish Scenario

As mentioned, $157.7 is the key resistance area that might hold bullish momentum. The Awesome oscillator in the daily and 4-hour charts, as well as the RSI (14), suggest a sideways trend in the short term. If the USD/JPY price holds below the $157.7 resistance, the consolidation phase could test the key support level at $156.0.

USD/JPY Key Levels – 3-June-2024

Traders and investors should closely monitor the key levels below to make informed decisions and adjust their strategies accordingly as market conditions shift.

• Support: $156.0 / $155.0
• Resistance: $157.7 / $158.4

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Disclaimer: This technical analysis is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign exchange trading carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions.