FxNews—Natural gas prices in the U.S. have decreased to under $2.3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), hitting a one-month low. This drop comes even as more gas is sent to plants that prepare it for export.
However, the expectation of mild weather, which reduces the need for heating, is keeping prices down through early November.
Winter Forecast Dims, Natural Gas Prices Fall 11%
Over the past week, natural gas prices have decreased by approximately 11%, adding to an 8% fall the week before. Market traders are becoming less convinced that severe winter cold will drive prices higher this season.
U.S. Natural Gas Production Drops as LNG Exports Peak
Natural gas production in the continental U.S. decreased slightly in October. In 2024, production might decline for the first time in four years. At the same time, unusually warm weather is anticipated to keep demand low.
Nevertheless, the amount of gas going to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants has reached its highest level in eight months.
NATGAS Analysis – 18-October-2024
The Natural gas price is in a strong downtrend, and today, the bears successfully broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci critical support. As of this writing, NATGAS clings to the $2.18 support, the September 24 low.
From a technical perspective, the downtrend will likely resume at the %78.6 Fibonacci retracement level of $2.06 if the selling pressure exceeds $2.18.
Conversely, if the September 24 low of $2.18 holds, the market might witness a consolidation phase toward the $2.23 active resistance.
