FxNews—US natural gas futures are nearly $2.24 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This price is near its lowest in the last five weeks. The expected mild weather until early November might lead to a lower need for heating.
Additionally, this week, the amount of gas sent to facilities that turn gas into liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export has been reduced.
Colder November Could Increase Heating Usage
Although the weather is predicted to stay relatively warm for now, a colder turn in November could increase the demand for heating compared to October.
On another note, experts believe natural gas producers might reduce production next year. This would be the first drop in output since 2020, likely caused by decreased drilling activities.
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NATGAS Analysis – 22-October-2024
The Natural Gas price failed to surpass the %23.6 Fibonacci retracement level at $2.32. Consequently, the price dipped to approximately $2.24 in today’s trading session.
The Awesome Oscillator recent bar is green, below the signal line, meaning the market is mildly bullish. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) floats below the median line, indicating a bear market.
From a technical perspective, the primary trend is bearish as long as the NATGAS price is below $2.32. Furthermore, a new bearish wave will likely begin if bears (sellers) close and stabilize the price below the September 24 low. In this scenario, the next target could be the $2.1 resistance.
NATGAS Bullish Scenario
If bulls (buyers) close and stabilize the price above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.32, the uptick momentum from $2.18 could spread to the 38.2% Fibonacci at $2.42.
